LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Throughout the war with Iran, Tehran has attacked an important U.S. ally - Saudi Arabia. And now Saudi faces a new challenge. Several tankers with Saudi oil turned around in the Red Sea on Tuesday. Yemen's Houthi rebels are threatening to attack ships passing on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula from the Strait of Hormuz. The last time Houthis targeted commercial ships in the Red Sea was 2024. That's when our next guest was the U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East under President Biden. Daniel Shapiro is also a former U.S. ambassador to Israel. Ambassador, welcome back to the program.
DANIEL SHAPIRO: Good morning, Leila. Thank you.
FADEL: Good morning. So back when you were in the Pentagon, Houthis were targeting ships over Israel's war in Gaza and that wreaked havoc on the global economy. What do you expect to happen now?
SHAPIRO: We'll see what tactics they decide to use. They've announced a blockade of the Bab el-Mandab, and they've certainly shown the capability to attack ships, even to sink ships. They've captured one, held the mariners hostage. They killed a number of mariners. So they have the capability, using a combination of equipment - mines, underwater drones, surface drones, small attack boats.
But the real threat are these shore-based missiles and airborne drones, which they have proved very innovative and adaptable in learning how to use them back in 2024, again into 2025. And now they've had a year of watching the Iranian tactics in the Strait of Hormuz to learn even further. So if they choose to really try to shut down shipping - to make it so dangerous that shippers and insurers won't want to send their vessels through the Bab el-Mandab - they could completely shut it down.
FADEL: I mean, how significant is that? The Strait of Hormuz, as we know, is this true choke point, in that it's the only way in and out of the Gulf. So if the Houthis are also able to close the Bab el-Mandab Strait at the southern tip of the Red Sea, how critical does the situation become?
SHAPIRO: It's important. We've already seen the disruption of close to 20% of the world's oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. This would take millions of barrels a day off the market - maybe 7% of the global supply. They could obviously blockade the ports if they want to really make this impossible, such that the Saudis couldn't even offload oil onto ships that would be going north to the other end of the Red Sea and through the Suez Canal. But you couldn't send enough oil that way to cover the loss for what would be going usually through the Bab el-Mandab toward Asian markets. So today, I think oil prices are around $92 a barrel. I think you definitely see an additional spike in oil prices once it becomes clear that this additional supply has been disrupted.
FADEL: I mean, the biggest struggle that the U.S. military is having right now is trying to wrest control of the Strait of Hormuz from Iran. If they're going to end up having to try to secure shipping in both of these places at the same time, how much more challenging does it become?
SHAPIRO: It's a major strain on U.S. military forces. The U.S. Navy, of course, is involved in a very complex blockade of Iranian ports, as well as trying to escort those ships that are able or willing to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. And, of course, they've got to use airborne assets to strike targets inside Iran for where these attacks are being launched from. If they have to add a naval protection mission to ships trying to get through the Bab el-Mandab, that's several destroyers and cruisers capable with ballistic missile defenses that you'd have to bring to the other side of the Arabian Peninsula. You'd have to put additional air assets onto that mission as well.
You know, the United States conducted over a month of intense combat strikes against the Houthis last spring - March and April of 2025 - under President Trump, and it did lead to a certain degree of lowering of that Houthi threat, but it was a major military commitment. It's not something that one does just as a kind of an add-on to some other mission.
FADEL: If you were still serving in the Pentagon, in this moment, what would your recommendations be, given this new threat?
SHAPIRO: I think it's important for the principle of freedom of navigation for the United States to be present in the waters where it's contested and to try to ensure that that is not an acceptable practice. But it also isn't something the United States should be doing all by itself. In the Biden administration, we tried to get a coalition of countries from Europe and the Middle East to participate in escorting and protecting ships trying to transit those waters. But, again, we're under such strain now because of the length of the conflict in Iran. I think it's - actually, the time has to come to wrap up the conflict in Iran, make sure the strait is open. But that's going to have to be done through negotiation as much as it is through military means.
FADEL: Daniel Shapiro is a former U.S. ambassador to Israel and a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East. Ambassador, thank you for your time.
SHAPIRO: Thanks for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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