MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
Voting ends today in a handful of high-profile elections, including for mayor of New York City and for governor in New Jersey and Virginia.
STEVE INSKEEP, BYLINE: It's a tradition to watch those three elections. They always come in the first year of a presidency, and people look for clues to what voters are thinking. This year, there's an extra big election to watch - a ballot measure in California that could influence who captures Congress next year.
MARTIN: Here to talk us through these races is NPR political correspondent Ashley Lopez. Ashley, good morning.
ASHLEY LOPEZ, BYLINE: Good morning.
MARTIN: Let's start in California. It's a one-issue election - kind of unusual.
LOPEZ: Yeah, kind of. It's a one-ballot measure on the ballot asking voters to allow state lawmakers to redraw their congressional map ahead of the 2026 election. California has an independent redistricting commission, which is something voters approved about 15 years ago. If passed, this measure would allow Democrats in the state to bypass that commission so that they can do a partisan gerrymander. That means they would draw up to five more seats that their party is favored to win in the midterms.
MARTIN: But you can't think about California in isolation here because it's part of a national redistricting fight between Democrats and Republicans in a number of states. So in this case, this is Democrats in California responding to Republicans in Texas.
LOPEZ: That's right. And Democrats went as far as saying that in the ballot language of this measure, Texas redrew its map at the request of President Trump and created five more favorable seats for Republicans in the state. And California basically wants to offset that edge that Trump wants. And this measure looks like it's likely to pass. I was actually in Southern California last week, and many Democratic voters told me they have, like, mixed feelings about bypassing the independent redistricting commission and allowing gerrymandering. But they think it's more important to fight back against Trump and Republicans, and this is one way they can.
MARTIN: All right. Let's move to the other coast, to New York City. What should we know about the mayoral race there?
LOPEZ: Right. So the frontrunner for that race is Zohran Mamdani, who is 34 years old, and he's a member of the New York State Assembly. He won the Democratic primary this summer, which surprised a lot of folks because he was relatively unknown when he entered the race. And he beat a former governor in that primary contest - Andrew Cuomo. Cuomo decided to stay in the race by running as an independent. In the last days of the campaign, Cuomo has gotten some big endorsements, including the president's. But this hasn't been an easy fight for him. Mamdani has a very energetic grassroots campaign that has engaged a lot of young voters in the city, especially on affordability issues.
MARTIN: Also interesting that the president bypassed the Republican in the race to go to Cuomo as an independent. OK. So what should we keep an eye on when it comes to the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia?
LOPEZ: Yeah. So Democrats are out of power in Washington, obviously, but governorships have been this area of government where they've been able to somewhat push back against the Trump administration. So the stakes of these races are particularly high for Democrats. In Virginia, Democrats have a decent shot. Abigail Spanberger, a former member of Congress, is pulling ahead in that race against Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. And there's a history of the party in power in the White House typically losing the race for governor in Virginia.
MARTIN: And what about New Jersey?
LOPEZ: Yeah. I mean, that race might be a little tougher for the Democratic Party. Besides the polling being close, history is not on the party's side like it is in Virginia. Voters have not elected the same party for governor for three terms in a row since the '60s, so Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill is seeking to defy that trend against Republican Jack Ciattarelli.
MARTIN: So what, if anything, about tonight will you be looking for as a possible clue to the midterm elections next year?
LOPEZ: Well, I'm going to be looking at how Democrats perform in these races. Yes, they're favored to win a lot of them, but there is a big difference among these candidates. Mamdani and Spanberger, for example, represent very different parts of the Democratic coalition. And results could tell us something about how voters are responding to different kinds of candidates and messaging as the party looks to next year.
MARTIN: That is NPR's Ashley Lopez. Ashley, thank you.
LOPEZ: Yeah. Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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