LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Tehran has laid out tough conditions for the U.S. to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which may mean the talks drag on much longer.
A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Some experts say that could be a deliberate strategy to prolong negotiations so that President Trump goes into midterm elections even more unpopular than polls show he already is.
FADEL: To understand this thinking better, we're joined by NPR's Hadeel Al-Shalchi in Istanbul. Good morning.
HADEEL AL-SHALCHI, BYLINE: Good morning.
FADEL: What is Iran saying it wants in order to make a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz?
AL-SHALCHI: Yeah. So we know that the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a statement over the weekend saying that Iran would only open the Strait of Hormuz, that key global waterway, if the U.S. lifted its naval blockade as well as sanctions. He said that the U.S. military must withdraw from around Iran, pay it reparations for war damages, release frozen Iranian assets and end its attacks.
Now, in the deal itself that Iran is currently negotiating with Oman, Iran has banned any U.S. or Israeli ships from moving through the strait and says that Iran will charge a fee and impose fines of up to 20% of the cargo value if those conditions are broken. And the White House has yet to comment on those Iranian demands.
FADEL: Now, these conditions just - just several of them sound like something the U.S. just would never agree to. What's Iran's strategy here?
AL-SHALCHI: Well, the conversation inside Iran is very much about President Trump's vulnerability ahead of the midterms. Iran is very aware of the U.S. political discourse. Iranian media tracks Trump's polling rates. It discusses how the Democratic Party's base is shifting. For example, a news agency closely tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard published an article entitled "The Iran War And The Start Of Trump's Political Decline," outlining Trump's drop in popularity and the dilemma he faces if he continues the war.
I spoke to Asli Aydintasbas, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, who's been following the talks. She says that Iran wants to make clear to Trump that even if they can't defeat the U.S. militarily, they have other ways.
ASLI AYDINTASBAS: They can drag this out, that they are resilient and therefore, they will have a stronger hand than they normally would in Hormuz negotiations.
AL-SHALCHI: And so, like you said, Iran is keeping those demands as maximalist as possible and trying to push any nuclear talks further into the future. Iran has said maybe up to four months from now, even, and that could force Trump to go into midterms with no Iranian deal, a weakened economy and an angry base that disapproves of the war.
FADEL: Could this backfire, though, for Iran?
AL-SHALCHI: Playing this long game doesn't come without risk. The U.S. has dealt Iran major blows in infrastructure and military. And if Iran doesn't strike a deal with the U.S. soon, it can risk even more internal unrest as the economy continues to fail in Iran. On Sunday, Trump said to Axios, quote, "we are low-keying it," and compared it all to a chess game. He said that the U.S. was watching Iran's huge inflation.
But Aydintasbas says that Iran and the U.S. have been thinking about each other for half a century and know each other's Achilles heel. And for Iran, there's precedent. The Iran hostage crisis of 1979 essentially cost Jimmy Carter the presidency.
AYDINTASBAS: Iran wants to use this time, use their leverage, but also the midterm calendar for a stronger agreement that establishes their sovereignty over Hormuz.
AL-SHALCHI: Trump, however, she says, has not been studying Iran. She says his administration has a disdain for Washington experts and policymakers, people who would have probably told Trump not to go to war.
FADEL: NPR's Hadeel Al-Shalchi in Istanbul. Thank you, Hadeel.
AL-SHALCHI: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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