MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
It is Labor Day. Even though you might think the last election never ended, this is considered the unofficial beginning of the general election season. Mail-in ballots are already being sent out in North Carolina, for example. Now, Republicans control the House and the Senate, but President Trump's second-term agenda is unpopular, and most voters are critical of his performance. So that could be a drag on the party's candidates. NPR's Stephen Fowler is here now to explain where things stand. Good morning, Stephen.
STEPHEN FOWLER, BYLINE: Good morning.
MARTIN: So we know the party in power tends to lose ground in the midterms. That would mean Republicans lose seats. Democrats gain seats. Does it look like that will happen this year?
FOWLER: The short answer, probably. Here's a longer one. We know that Democrats have been showing up to vote more in primaries and say they're more excited to vote in the general election. We know that Democrats have been doing way better in special elections and other elections since November 2024, and we know that voters say they are concerned about the war in Iran, tariffs and gas prices and affordability, and that voters feel a disconnect between those issues and what the president seems to be focused on, like, say, the ballroom construction. That is a recipe for Republicans losing seats.
MARTIN: But, you know, Republicans could lose seats and still control Congress. I mean, understanding that there are still two months to go and that, you know, many people are only just now starting to think about the election, what does the landscape look like today for Congress next year?
FOWLER: Even with this redistricting arms race that led several states to try and maximize the number of safe seats for Democrats and Republicans in the last year or so, the likeliest outcome is still that Democrats take the House. That's based on polling averages, which are a snapshot in time, that show more voters would prefer to elect a Democrat than a Republican to represent them in Congress. With fewer true toss-up seats now, you've got attention heavily concentrated on a relatively small number of expensive races, but both parties are realistically paying at least a little bit of attention to seats where Trump won as much as 55% of the vote.
MARTIN: OK, what about the Senate? A few months ago, it did not look like Democrats had a realistic path to retaking the majority there. What about now?
FOWLER: The path is a lot easier to see, Michel. Before, people thought that Georgia and North Carolina were just a few of the toss-up races in what's a pretty good overall map for Republicans keeping their seats. But now we're talking toss-ups in Republican-friendly Iowa, Texas, Ohio, Alaska. And control of the chamber is no longer a given for either party. Got the national environment being more Democrat-friendly, and it's also the advantage of strong Democratic nominees raising a lot of money. You've got third party candidates on the ballot that could earn enough votes from people who don't like either party.
MARTIN: So what should people be focused on in the run-up to Election Day?
FOWLER: There are two M's I want you to consider - money and the message. On the money front, Democratic candidates are raising more in key competitive races. While you've got Republican Party groups and Trump's super PAC MAGA Inc. that have more money in the bank, but it remains to be seen if they actually spend all of that money before it's too late to make a difference or if they spend much at all. Then you've got message. Republicans are holding an unprecedented midterm convention in Dallas this week, where they're trying to rally a flagging base and convince independents to give them another chance. Democrats are in the competitive place they are because of nominees whose message is partially about how the Democratic Party isn't that great either.
MARTIN: That is NPR's Stephen Fowler. Stephen, thank you.
FOWLER: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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