A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Each Tuesday this month, Morning Edition is reporting from pivotal states that will decide the balance of power after November's midterms. Texas is one of them. In this usually deep-red state, the races for a U.S. Senate seat and the governor's office are surprisingly close. David Martin Davies of Texas Public Radio is with us. David, let's start off with the Senate race.
DAVID MARTIN DAVIES, BYLINE: Well, the race is between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, and it's become unusually competitive, with Talarico leading in most of the polls. But just because you put something in the pot, don't make it gumbo, meaning we don't know what to make of the polling because Texas has been such a reliable red state. Paxton has been the state's attorney general for nearly 12 years, and he's had multiple corruption scandals. Talarico is an Austin state representative, and he's trying to cobble a coalition that extends beyond the Democratic base.
Paxton is a conservative, tough on immigration enforcement, and opposed to abortion. Talarico was talking about affordability and battling political corruption. When I spoke with Republican voters at last week's San Antonio Trump rally, they were very concerned about transgender kids. Paxton is reminding voters of some of Talarico's previous statements about transgender rights and religion. Talarico admits that they were cringy.
MARTÍNEZ: All right. Now, in the governor's race, Greg Abbott is vying for a fourth term. He's being challenged by state representative Gina Hinojosa. How's that race shaping up?
DAVIES: Hinojosa is making the case that Republicans have been in one-party rule in Texas for the last 30 years. Abbott's been governor for 12, and so there's no one to blame for Texas' problems other than Abbott. That includes problems in public education, high property taxes, a lopsided economy and a lack of water. Voters from both parties are upset about data centers and Flock cameras, which Abbott has supported.
MARTÍNEZ: David, what explains why these races are so close?
DAVIES: Well, there's been a lot of talk about Latino voters swinging back to Democrats, and that's happening. But rural voters are also up in arms, and not just in Texas. It's been those reliable red rural voters that have kept Republicans in power for the past 30 years here. For farmers and ranchers, higher diesel prices mean higher costs. Beef producers feel betrayed because Trump is importing cheap beef. Mass deportations has taken away their cheap labor.
Democrats don't have to win these rural counties, but if enough of these ticked-off ranchers stay home or vote for the libertarian candidates, that could crack the rural red wall. This is a possible path for a historic Democratic victory. It's not a forecast. It's still a long time before Election Day, and anything can happen.
MARTÍNEZ: That's Texas Public Radio's David Martin Davies. Thanks a lot.
DAVIES: Thanks, A. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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