MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
One of the many surprising places President Trump is campaigning in the final weeks of the election is Kansas. He plans to hold a rally there on Monday. NPR's Stephen Fowler is in Dodge City, Kansas, to explain the party's closing message. Good morning, Stephen.
STEPHEN FOWLER, BYLINE: Good morning.
MARTIN: So it's a tough environment for Republicans nationally. How are candidates navigating that in Kansas where you are? 'Cause Trump won there by more than 16 points.
FOWLER: I spent the day yesterday on the first legs of the Kansas Republican Party's bus tour across the state with local officials and candidates, like the governor nominee Ty Masterson, who is leading in many polls. Kansas has a Republican supermajority in the state legislature, Republican statewide elected officials, but for the last eight years has had a Democratic governor. So while Republicans in other states may have to deal with Trump's shadow hanging over their campaigns, in Kansas, at least, there's a lot of focus on taking back the governor's office and offering up a contrast to Democrats. There is talk of affordability and high energy prices, but not because of national policies or even arguing that Trump is working on it. Secretary of state nominee Pat Proctor said voters get it.
PAT PROCTOR: When they hear us talk and they look at what we actually do, we're just closer to where they want Kansas to be.
FOWLER: I mean, on the bus tour, people just kept reiterating that Kansas is a state that is mainly Republican, that votes mainly for Republicans and needs to, once again, vote Republican - especially for governor.
MARTIN: OK. But what about - let's talk about that Senate race. I mean, how are Democrats framing the Senate race against the incumbent Republican Roger Marshall?
FOWLER: It really wasn't on a lot of people's radar until the last few weeks or so. There was this debate last month at the state fair that kicked off just a string of bad headlines for Marshall, who was kind of caught flat-footed by the political environment that is very anti-incumbent. His opponent, Adam Hamilton - who calls himself an independent-minded Democrat - he's a Methodist pastor and has really leaned into how many conservatives back his campaign. He told me earlier this week that Republicans keep telling him this...
ADAM HAMILTON: You represent our values. You represent the character we're looking for in somebody in leadership. And we know you're going to fight for both Republicans and Democrats. And they're exactly right.
FOWLER: Just to put a finer point on it here, Trump won Kansas by about 16 points in 2024. The combination of bad vibes for Republicans and Hamilton's strong campaign has led both parties to invest tens of millions of dollars in the state in just the last few weeks, and is now one of Trump's final stops on his midterm swing that probably wasn't on his Bingo card, either.
MARTIN: OK. So there's potential in Kansas for a Republican to flip the governor's mansion, but for a Democrat to flip a Senate seat, does that sound right? Is that dynamic unique to Kansas?
FOWLER: Kansas is the most likely state where election forecasters say it's possible for the governor's race to flip from a Democrat to a Republican. So it is unique in that sense. But there are actually closer to 10 states right now where polls suggest it's possible voters could pick one party to represent them in the Senate and another to govern the state - what's called split-ticket voting. Many of them are in longtime Republican trifectas. Places like Ohio, Iowa and Texas. That's where you're seeing dissatisfaction with national Republicans trickle down to how people feel about state and local Republicans.
So again, I do think this broader trend we talked about - about people feeling anti-incumbent and anti-the-party-in-power - that's a sentiment that is worth watching in these final weeks of the midterms.
MARTIN: That is NPR's Stephen Fowler. He's in Dodge City, Canada. Stephen, thank you.
FOWLER: Thank you.
(SOUNDBITE OF KANSAS SONG, "CARRY ON WAYWARD SON") Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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