STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
OK. So how do Republican voters see their choices? Ron Brownstein is with us, politics columnist for Bloomberg and senior political analyst with CNN. Ron, good morning.
RON BROWNSTEIN: Good morning, Steve.
INSKEEP: What do you make of a president offering taxpayer money to voters...
BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.
INSKEEP: ...Only if they obey his order for how to vote?
BROWNSTEIN: Extraordinary, unprecedented. I mean, some of what he said last night was typical pork-barrel politics - you know, we'll bring a Department of Defense investment there. But when he's talking about giving money to voters only if they elect Republicans, I mean, that really is an extension of the way he has treated the federal government through his entire second term - as a vast machine for awarding allies pardons, contracts, and punishing those he sees as adversaries - you know, indictments and lawsuits. So this is something beyond what we have seen from other presidents, and it's something that's pretty ominous, actually.
INSKEEP: Now, we know a lot of Republicans have actually suffered in this term economically, and a...
BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.
INSKEEP: ...Lot of them are not happy. But I'd like to know if that changes their vote. I've been talking with voters in North Carolina and Georgia. Want to play you a couple of them, Ron. First, Ryan Dunlap, conservative Republican in North Carolina, hardware store owner, having his worst year in business, he says, talking here about inflation and the Iran war.
How do you think Trump is doing this term?
RYAN DUNLAP: I don't know, man. It's a lot going on. It's - with the conflict and everything. Now, I will say, in his first term, we had some of our best years of business ever. And with this - you know, with everything going on now, it's just kind of put the brakes on it.
INSKEEP: Put the brakes on it. But he usually votes Republican, says he could do so again. And we also met Connie Buffington of Georgia, who says she will vote for the Republican Senate candidate there even though she is disappointed.
CONNIE BUFFINGTON: So, you know, I'm going to end up voting for the Republican.
INSKEEP: You'll vote for Collins in spite of not being thrilled by him, I guess.
BUFFINGTON: That's right.
INSKEEP: What's wrong with him?
BUFFINGTON: He doesn't seem very sharp. He doesn't seem very smart. He seems like a career politician, and I hate that. I don't like Jon Ossoff, so I don't feel like I have a choice.
INSKEEP: Ron Brownstein, are these voters unusual - Republicans who are disappointed but still leaning Republican?
BROWNSTEIN: You know, Steve, strategists in both parties consider those voters the absolute fulcrum or pivot of the last two weeks. The critical question is, what do those voters do? Trump's disapproval, as we talked about before, is worse in this election than it was in 2018. It's worse than Biden in '22, worse than Obama in '10, worse than W. Bush in '06, worse than Clinton in '94. But Democrats are not winning in the polls, at this point, as many of the voters who disapprove of Trump as they did in his first term. In his first term, roughly 90% of people who disapproved of Trump said they voted Democratic for the House and in almost all Senate races. This time - excuse me - they're closer to about 80% - Democrats.
And the difference are these Republican-leaning voters who are disappointed in Trump's second term but still reluctant to say they're going to vote for Democrats. What do they do in the end? Do some of them hold their nose and vote Democratic? Do some of them, like your interviewees, hold their nose and vote Republican? Or do many of them stay home? How they break in the final days will probably determine whether this is a good night for Democrats or a very good night, especially because the Senate battlefield, in particular, is being fought out almost entirely in red-leaning places that Trump won by double digits only two years ago.
INSKEEP: What motivates, do you think, that kind of loyalty where a voter would say, this has been a terrible second term - I'm really disappointed - I'm personally suffering, and so I'm going to vote the same way I did before?
BROWNSTEIN: It's what the political scientists call negative, you know, partisanship. I mean, you know, what Republicans are banking on in the final weeks is not trying to convince voters that the last two years have delivered what you expected in 2024. It's making the argument specifically to these Republican-leaning voters disappointed in Trump that however unhappy you are with the way things are now, you'd like it less if Democrats were in charge.
INSKEEP: Now, Republicans do seem likely to lose the House. Of course, we'll wait for the election results, but Democrats seem favored to capture the House. Let's talk about the Senate, though. The map has...
BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.
INSKEEP: ...Increased. A lot of red states are in play. But do Democrats have the same chance to capture the Senate?
BROWNSTEIN: You know, the House and Senate are diverging. I mean, look at where Republicans pulled out yesterday of House districts in North Carolina the outside spending - and Florida, that Trump won by 10 - roughly 10 points. That means they are drawing their firewall way beyond 218 seats for Democrats. They're just trying to prevent a wipeout, it looks like at this point.
In the Senate, though, Democrats generally have not been able to pull away. They seem safe in North Carolina. They have a solid lead in Ohio, where Ramaswamy's new ad is probably going to compound their problems. But beyond that, Democrats are only clinging to small leads in Alaska, Texas and Maine. And on defensive states that they're defending, they're - have only small leads in Michigan and Minnesota. So the Senate remains on a knife's edge while the House looks like it's pretty much being put to bed.
INSKEEP: Ron Brownstein writes a politics column for Bloomberg and provides political analysis for CNN. Ron, thanks so much.
BROWNSTEIN: Thanks for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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