Diminished snow pack in New Mexico, as well as ongoing drought and above-normal temperatures, could mean an active wildfire season across the state through June, according to a new long-term forecast and the National Weather Service.
Fire season has already begun in New Mexico: Much of northeast New Mexico is under an NWS Red Flag Warning on Tuesday, indicating high risk of wildfire, and a small wildfire Monday in southeast New Mexico prompted the evacuation of a Capitan mobile home park before State Forestry crews controlled it Monday evening.
The warning and ignition underscore a forecast that the National Interagency Fire Center published Tuesday that warns above-normal wildfire potential exists across eastern New Mexico through March.
The outlook notes that eastern New Mexico received less than 10% of its normal precipitation in February. The lack of precipitation, as well as high temperatures and long-term drought conditions, have left grasslands and brush that cover much of the region dried out and primed for fire, according to the outlook.
Matt Hurteau, a fire ecologist at the University of New Mexico, told Source NM on Tuesday that conditions are shaping up to be dire, especially if the state does not receive spring moisture.
“We have all the conditions in place,” he said. “It’s been really warm across the West this year. We’re got a severe snow drought in New Mexico, and so all the fuels are going to be…basically cured and ready to burn.”
Early March typically marks when the state experiences its highest level of snowpack, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association. Snowpack is key to reducing the flammability of vegetation until the monsoon season, Hurteau said.
So far this year, the Rio Grande Basin, which covers most of New Mexico, is at roughly 6% of the median snowpack. The snow drought has afflicted most of the West this winter, which Hurteau said could mean federal and state firefighting resources could be stretched thin if multiple large wildfires ignite at the same time.
“As hot as it’s been throughout the West this season, other regions are going to start to come online earlier in the season from a flammability perspective,” he said.
Carter Gruelich, an NWS meteorologist, told Source NM on Tuesday that drought conditions contribute to the high wildfire risk.
“We may be looking at some short term relief coming up next week,” he said while looking at a precipitation forecast. “But on a longer term scale, that is not going to do much. We kind of need several of those systems to consistently give rainfall for us to start to worry less about the fire season.”
While the NIFC outlook for April shows that the state will experience typical wildfire potential, risks increase across the state in May and June, particularly in higher elevations and in the western part of the state due to widespread tree deaths and drought stress.
Apart from the snow drought, Hurteau noted that conditions were similar this time last year. What “saved us,” he said, was late spring moisture. That’s what he’s praying for this season.
“We’re kind of dependent on hope this fire season like last year,” he said.
