MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:
If you have been paying close attention to the U.S. war with Iran, you've likely noticed some contradictory messages about the conflict. Wednesday night, President Trump praised the Iranian regime for agreeing not to execute eight women protesters as a sign of respect for him. Iran's judiciary said the women had never faced the death penalty and called Trump's post false news. Then today, Trump said he had, quote, "ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat" laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. So where is U.S. policy toward Iran headed, and who is driving it? - questions we dove into on our national security podcast Sources & Methods. NPR White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez and national security correspondent Greg Myre join me to talk it through.
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KELLY: Franco, JD Vance, the vice president - he was on deck to head to Pakistan to lead negotiations with Iran. He led the last round that didn't get anywhere. Why him?
FRANCO ORDOÑEZ, BYLINE: You know, it's interesting because JD Vance actually did not have much of a role in the very early aspects of this conflict. And, you know, from my understanding...
KELLY: He's not a diplomat with deep international experience.
ORDOÑEZ: No. I mean, he was considered the member of the cabinet who is most opposed to the conflict. And this is something that I think has come up a lot because I think that is maybe one of the reasons why he has been brought up. But interestingly enough, I've been talking with sources who are close to Vance and close to the administration who say, well, you know, it makes sense that he is now the person because, you know, obviously Trump wants to get out of this conflict. He needs someone who can, you know, kind of relate or at least can, you know, be a sympathetic ear. You know, Iran could potentially see Vance as someone who does not necessarily want this to continue and therefore, maybe see him as having a sympathetic ear to some of their concerns. But also, what I'm being told is, look, it does make sense for Vance to be this person as they kind of think long term because he is, you know, the heir apparent of the U.S. perhaps, if, you know, Republican...
KELLY: He's a heavyweight. If you can't negotiate with Trump directly, JD Vance is seen as the next best.
ORDOÑEZ: Exactly. But also, he is, you know, who would be the next potential leader of a Trump administration in a few years. So I think looking at this in a potentially - you know, a long run, a longer picture, this may be seen as, look, this is not just a short-term decision.
KELLY: Marco Rubio might have thoughts about that. So let me inject Marco Rubio here. He - how is it possible that the guy who is America's diplomat-in-chief - he is the secretary of state and the national security adviser - that he's nowhere to be seen in a moment when the U.S. is trying to pull off the highest of high-stakes diplomacy?
ORDOÑEZ: Yeah. I find that part very fascinating because Marco Rubio was very involved in the early stages of the conflict. He was really kind of setting the message, explaining some of the - you know, the war goals, the goals of this administration. But in the last couple of weeks, he's definitely kind of moved into the shadows. I did ask the White House, actually, about this with Rubio and...
KELLY: Yeah. What'd they say?
ORDOÑEZ: Essentially, they told me that he is still very much involved. And when I talked to, you know, sources who are close to the administration, they tell me that he has kind of moved more to - or likely moved more to a national security adviser role, where he is kind of managing the day to day, kind of bringing all the agencies' input together and bringing it to the president. Obviously, we've reported many times that this president likes a close circle, and that - so that would be a big role for Rubio.
KELLY: Greg, what about Pete Hegseth, the defense secretary?
GREG MYRE, BYLINE: Well, he certainly seems to have President's (ph) Trump full support and backing right now. He - in this war, he's maintained this sort of narrow lane. He's come out periodically, not a lot, not every day, to talk about how the war was going, but very much with military metrics - how many targets the U.S. has hit, how many Iranian ships have been sunk. He hasn't spoken about anything broader about strategy, about goals, the wider Middle East. So he's...
KELLY: So you're saying he's laying out numbers - this many bombs dropped, this many ships we've seized, this many - but not articulating what's the end goal.
MYRE: Exactly. And I think that's where Trump is kind of keeping him. And, again, he's - we're hearing relatively little from him, given that we are now almost eight weeks into this conflict, even though it's gone silent until the ceasefire has been in place for the past couple weeks. So it's a limited role for Hegseth. And you do have this cast of characters in addition. You know, you've got your all-purpose diplomats Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who get thrown in to every crisis. And it...
KELLY: Witkush (ph), as someone put it to me at a...
MYRE: (Laughter) There we go.
KELLY: ...Gathering I was at at an embassy recently - the Witkush team.
MYRE: And so, you know, I also am trying to figure out who's got the president's ear. You know, but maybe at the end of the day, it still boils down to whatever Trump says, and that message oscillates wildly from one day to the next. There's almost a deal, or I expect to start bombing heavily. You know, just wait. If you don't like his message, wait 12, 24 hours, and it's probably going to change.
KELLY: Franco, what do your sources say about who's got ?
ORDOÑEZ: You know, of course, and when it comes to this conflict, there's Netanyahu - the prime minister, Bibi Netanyahu of Israel - who's obviously played a heavy role. Someone I am paying very, very close attention to, though, is the Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina. He has talked a lot with the president, including, you know, coming out online and social media on Wednesday saying that, you know, really, really strongly backing this blockade that the U.S. has and saying it could even go global. You know, he is a voice that everyone should kind of pay attention to because when it comes to kind of these hawkish things, I find that they are very much in sync. You don't hear Lindsey Graham necessarily talk vociferously like he is unless he feels like he has the president's backing.
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KELLY: That was NPR White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez and national security correspondent Greg Myre. They joined me for our weekly podcast Sources & Methods. You can listen to the full episode wherever you get your podcasts. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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